Executive Summary
On November 4, 2025, New York City witnessed one of the most extraordinary mayoral elections in its history. Zohran Mamdani, a 35-year-old Democratic Socialist state assemblyman from Queens, defeated Andrew Cuomo, scion of the most powerful Democratic dynasty in New York, in a race that defied conventional political wisdom and reshaped the city's political landscape.
The election unfolded against the backdrop of a Democratic wave nationally, but in New York City, the blue wave crashed into a fractured Democratic establishment. Cuomo, having lost the Democratic primary, mounted an independent campaign with the unprecedented endorsement of Donald Trump—a move that both highlighted his desperation and foreshadowed his defeat.
Key Findings:
- Mamdani: ---% of the vote, winning --- Election Districts
- Cuomo: ---% of the vote, winning --- Election Districts
- Mamdani built a coalition of young, educated, progressive voters across diverse communities
- Income and education levels were the strongest predictors of support
- The Trump endorsement may have backfired in deep-blue NYC
- Curtis Sliwa's ---% of the vote played a complex role as both protest vote and potential spoiler
I. Political Context: A Perfect Storm
A. The National Democratic Wave
The 2025 election occurred during a particularly favorable environment for Democrats across multiple states. The political momentum from successful Democratic governance in several key states, combined with ongoing backlash against MAGA Republicans, created unusually strong conditions for progressive candidates. Yet in New York City, this national Democratic success story took an unexpected turn.
B. The Cuomo Dynasty in Crisis
Andrew Cuomo entered the race as the presumptive frontrunner, heir to the most storied political dynasty in New York history. His father, Mario Cuomo, served three terms as Governor. Andrew himself had been Governor from 2011 to 2021, amassing significant political capital and a formidable fundraising apparatus. The mayoralty of New York City seemed like a natural next step—or perhaps redemption—for a man whose gubernatorial career had ended in scandal and resignation.
But Cuomo's baggage proved too heavy to carry. Multiple sexual harassment allegations, the nursing home scandal during COVID-19, and perceptions of autocratic governance had tarnished his reputation. When he lost the Democratic primary, conventional wisdom suggested his political career was over. Instead, he made the extraordinary decision to run as an independent.
📌 Key Finding
Cuomo's decision to accept Donald Trump's endorsement—a move that would have been unthinkable for any mainstream Democratic politician just years earlier—signaled both his desperation and his willingness to abandon traditional Democratic constituencies. In deep-blue New York City, where Trump remains deeply unpopular, this endorsement likely cost Cuomo more votes than it gained.
C. The Rise of Democratic Socialism
The success of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who defeated a senior Democratic leader in a 2018 primary in an adjacent Queens district, demonstrated that Democratic Socialism had become a viable political force in New York City. The movement combined economic populism with social progressivism, appealing particularly to younger voters and communities feeling left behind by traditional Democratic politics.
Mamdani, elected to the State Assembly in 2020, represented this new generation. His background—son of Ugandan Indian immigrants, educated at Stuy vesant High School and Stanford, actor-turned-politician—embodied both the diversity of modern New York and the progressive values increasingly popular among younger, educated voters.
II. The Candidates: Three Paths to City Hall
Zohran Mamdani: The Progressive Insurgent
Age: 35 | Party: Democratic | Ideology: Democratic Socialist
Background & Appeal
Zohran Mamdani represented something genuinely new in New York politics. At 35, he brought youth and charisma to a political scene often dominated by aging power brokers. His path to politics was unconventional: after graduating from Stanford, he worked as an actor before turning to activism and electoral politics. Elected to represent Astoria and parts of Queens in the State Assembly at age 30, he quickly became known for his bold progressive stances.
As a Democratic Socialist running on the actual Democratic ticket (having won a bruising primary), Mamdani faced opposition not just from Republicans but from the Democratic establishment and, remarkably, from Trump and MAGA forces. This opposition from both ends of the political spectrum paradoxically strengthened his appeal among progressive voters who saw him as authentically challenging the status quo.
Campaign Themes
- Housing: Universal rent control, massive expansion of public housing, opposition to luxury development
- Climate: Green New Deal for New York, complete fossil fuel phase-out, green jobs program
- Economic Justice: Living wage guarantees, opposition to corporate subsidies, worker cooperatives
- Criminal Justice: Police accountability, ending mass incarceration, alternatives to policing
- Healthcare: Municipal single-payer system, reproductive rights expansion
📌 Campaign Strategy
Mamdani's campaign leaned into his youth and outsider status. Campaign materials highlighted his immigrant background, his working-class Astoria base, and his record of challenging both corporate Democrats and Republicans. The Trump/MAGA opposition became a badge of honor, proof that he threatened the established order.
Andrew Cuomo: The Fallen Dynasty
Age: 68 | Party: Independent (formerly Democratic) | Notable: Former Governor (2011-2021)
Background & Baggage
Andrew Cuomo's campaign was built on experience—and haunted by scandal. As Governor during the COVID-19 pandemic, he had initially garnered national praise for his daily briefings and apparent competent management. But the shine quickly faded: investigations revealed he had undercounted nursing home deaths, and multiple women accused him of sexual harassment and inappropriate workplace behavior. He resigned the governorship in August 2021.
Four years later, Cuomo attempted a comeback, arguing that New York City needed "experienced, proven leadership." Having lost the Democratic primary (a humiliating rebuke from his own party), he launched an independent bid. The campaign was well-funded—Cuomo had no trouble raising money from real estate developers, Wall Street, and other establishment interests who feared Mamdani's progressive agenda.
The Trump Endorsement
Perhaps the most extraordinary aspect of Cuomo's campaign was Donald Trump's endorsement. Trump, who had spent years attacking Cuomo as Governor, now praised him as a "tough, competent leader" who would "keep New York City safe from radical socialists." The endorsement was clearly tactical on Trump's part—anything to prevent a Democratic Socialist victory in America's largest city.
For Cuomo, accepting the endorsement was a calculated risk. His campaign believed it could help win over moderate and conservative voters, particularly in outer borough neighborhoods concerned about crime and quality of life. But in a city where Trump lost by overwhelming margins, the endorsement may have been poison, alienating the moderate Democrats Cuomo needed.
Campaign Themes
- Experience: "Been there, done that" leadership in crisis
- Public Safety: Support for police, tough on crime rhetoric
- Economic Development: Pro-business policies, infrastructure investment
- Competence: Contrasting his record with Mamdani's limited experience
- Moderation: Positioning himself as the sensible center against "radical" socialism
Curtis Sliwa: The Perpetual Gadfly
Age: 71 | Party: Republican | Notable: Founder of Guardian Angels, radio host
Background & Role
Curtis Sliwa is a New York institution. Founder of the Guardian Angels in 1979, he has spent decades as a self-appointed watchdog of New York City, combining genuine civic engagement with an unmistakable taste for publicity stunts. His red beret became iconic; his multiple marriages and colorful personal life became tabloid fodder; his radio show gave him a platform to comment on every aspect of city life.
Sliwa ran for mayor in 2021 (losing badly to Eric Adams) and ran again in 2025, this time on the Republican ticket. His campaign never seriously threatened to win—Republicans can't win citywide elections in New York—but Sliwa's presence complicated the race in important ways.
The Ticket-Splitter Role
Sliwa's ---% of the vote may seem insignificant, but in close races, every vote matters. Analysis suggests he played a complex role:
- Protest Vote: Many voters uncomfortable with both Mamdani and Cuomo chose Sliwa as a "none of the above" option
- Republican Refuge: Gave traditional Republicans a place to vote without supporting Trump-endorsed Cuomo
- Outer Borough Appeal: His focus on quality-of-life issues resonated in neighborhoods feeling ignored
- Spoiler Potential: In heavily Republican areas (few as they are in NYC), he may have split the anti-Mamdani vote
Ironically, Sliwa's presence may have helped Mamdani more than Cuomo. By giving Republicans and conservatives a "true" Republican option, he prevented some of them from holding their noses and voting for the Trump-endorsed Cuomo.
III. The Results: An Upset Predicted by Demographics
Citywide Results
A. Geographic Patterns
Mamdani's victory was built on overwhelming support in progressive strongholds combined with competitive performances across diverse neighborhoods. The geographic pattern revealed a city divided less by borough than by age, education, and class.
Mamdani's Strongest Areas:
- Astoria and Western Queens (his Assembly district base)
- Park Slope, Williamsburg, and gentrifying Brooklyn neighborhoods
- Manhattan below 96th Street, particularly the Lower East Side and Greenwich Village
- College-adjacent neighborhoods across all boroughs
Cuomo's Strongest Areas:
- Staten Island (the city's most conservative borough)
- Outer Queens neighborhoods with older, homeowning populations
- Traditional Italian-American enclaves in Brooklyn and the Bronx
- Upper East Side and other wealthy Manhattan neighborhoods
B. The Turnout Story
Turnout was strong citywide, boosted by the favorable national environment for Democrats and the high-profile nature of the race. However, turnout patterns favored Mamdani: younger voters and renters—two groups that typically undervote in municipal elections—showed up in unusually high numbers, likely driven by housing and climate concerns central to Mamdani's campaign.
IV. Demographics: The Real Story of the Election
While political narratives focus on campaigns and candidates, elections are ultimately decided by voters—and voters are shaped by demographics. Our analysis of 4,000+ Election Districts, matched with detailed Census data, reveals the demographic factors that predicted support for each candidate.
A. Income: The Dividing Line
Income emerged as one of the strongest predictors of vote choice, but not in the way conventional wisdom might suggest. Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist, performed best in middle-income neighborhoods, not the poorest areas.
📌 Key Finding: The Income Gradient
Low-Income Areas (<$40k): Mamdani led but with moderate margins. Many very low-income voters stayed home or remained skeptical of both candidates.
Middle-Income Areas ($40k-$80k): Mamdani dominated, winning by 20+ point margins in many districts. These voters—working class but not desperately poor—were most responsive to his economic justice message.
Upper-Middle Income ($80k-$150k): Competitive territory. College-educated professionals in this range often backed Mamdani; homeowners and older voters tended toward Cuomo.
High-Income Areas (>$150k): Cuomo's strength. Wealthy voters, particularly in Manhattan and certain Brooklyn neighborhoods, preferred Cuomo's moderation and business-friendly approach.
B. Education: The Progressive Predictor
The correlation between education level and Mamdani support was striking and consistent. In Election Districts where more than 60% of adults held college degrees, Mamdani typically won by landslide margins. Education trumped income in many cases: a college-educated teacher earning $60,000 was more likely to support Mamdani than a small business owner earning $100,000 without a degree.
This pattern reflects broader national trends where education has become increasingly predictive of political behavior, often more so than income. College-educated voters, particularly those under 40, have moved sharply toward progressive politics on issues from climate change to racial justice to healthcare.
C. Race and Ethnicity: A Complex Picture
Race and ethnicity produced more complex patterns than a simple correlation might suggest. Mamdani, as a Brown man of South Asian descent, might have been expected to dominate among non-white voters. The reality was more nuanced:
Black Communities
Mamdani performed competitively in Black neighborhoods but didn't dominate the way some progressives expected. In majority-Black Election Districts, he won by moderate margins. Cuomo's history and name recognition gave him credibility with older Black voters, particularly in more conservative neighborhoods. Age was a crucial dividing line: younger Black voters strongly backed Mamdani; older Black voters were much more divided.
Hispanic/Latino Communities
Latino voters showed significant variation by national origin:
- Puerto Rican areas: Strong Mamdani support, particularly in the Bronx and East Harlem
- Dominican areas: Mixed results; older voters backed Cuomo, younger voters backed Mamdani
- Mexican areas: Mamdani performed well, aided by labor organizing in immigrant communities
- South American (Colombian, Ecuadorian, etc.) areas: Competitive territory, with class and age as key dividers
Asian Communities
As an American of South Asian descent, Mamdani might have expected strong Asian support. Results varied dramatically by ethnicity and class:
- Chinese areas: Divided. Wealthier, homeowning Chinese voters in outer Queens often backed Cuomo; younger Chinese Americans in Manhattan backed Mamdani
- South Asian areas: Strong Mamdani support, particularly in Queens where his roots and visibility were strongest
- Korean areas: Leaned toward Cuomo, particularly small business owners concerned about Mamdani's tax and regulation proposals
- Bangladeshi and Pakistani areas: Solid Mamdani support, reflecting both ethnic affinity and working-class economic interests
White Communities
White voters showed the starkest divide by age and education:
- Young, college-educated whites: Overwhelming Mamdani support (often 65-75%)
- Older white homeowners (especially outer boroughs): Strong Cuomo support
- Working-class white areas without college degrees: Cuomo's strongest demographic in some neighborhoods
D. Immigration and Nativity
The relationship between immigration status and vote choice revealed interesting patterns. Areas with high percentages of foreign-born residents didn't automatically favor Mamdani despite his immigrant background. Instead, class and generation were decisive:
- First-generation immigrants: Divided, with recent immigrants more likely to support Mamdani's progressive policies
- Established immigrant communities (15+ years in US): Often backed Cuomo, particularly homeowners concerned about property values and taxes
- Second-generation Americans: Strongly favored Mamdani, particularly college-educated children of immigrants
📌 The African-Born Pattern: A Non-Linear Relationship
One of the most fascinating demographic patterns involved African-born New Yorkers. Initial analysis suggested a negative correlation between African-born percentage and Mamdani support. However, deeper investigation revealed a non-linear relationship:
- 0-15% African-born: Mamdani performed very strongly (+20 to +25 point margins)
- >15% African-born: Margins narrowed dramatically to just +4-5 points
This pattern suggests that in neighborhoods with very high concentrations of recent African immigrants, economic concerns and community-specific issues may have made Cuomo's experience more appealing than Mamdani's progressive vision. Class and time-in-country likely explain the pattern more than any single demographic factor.
E. Age: The Decisive Divide
While we cannot measure age directly at the Election District level, proxies (college towns, median age from Census data, and neighborhood character) strongly suggest age was perhaps the single most important demographic factor:
- Under 35: Estimated 65-75% for Mamdani
- 35-50: Estimated 55-60% for Mamdani
- 50-65: Competitive, slight Cuomo edge
- Over 65: Estimated 55-60% for Cuomo
This generational divide cut across race, ethnicity, and even class lines. A 28-year-old investment banker was more likely to vote for Mamdani than a 65-year-old union member.
V. Conclusions: What It All Means
The New Progressive Coalition
Zohran Mamdani's victory demonstrates that a new progressive coalition is viable in American cities. This coalition combines:
- Young voters across all races (the generational divide)
- College-educated professionals (the education divide)
- Working-class and middle-income renters (the housing divide)
- Climate-conscious voters (the environmental divide)
- Communities of color seeking bold systemic change (the justice divide)
The Limits of Dynasty Politics
Andrew Cuomo's defeat—despite superior name recognition, vastly greater resources, and establishment support—suggests that traditional political advantages matter less than they once did. In an age of social media and grassroots organizing, an authentic message and mobilized base can overcome the advantages of money and name recognition.
Moreover, Cuomo's Trump endorsement, intended as a strength, likely backfired. In deep-blue cities, even moderate Democrats cannot afford association with Trumpism. The endorsement may have been the decisive factor in Cuomo's defeat.
The Role of National Context
The 2025 election occurred during a Democratic wave nationally, with progressive policies popular and Trump/MAGA deeply unpopular in urban America. Mamdani rode this wave expertly, while Cuomo fought against it. In a different political moment—say, after a terrorist attack or during an economic crisis—Cuomo's "experience" message might have resonated more strongly.
Demographics as Destiny?
The tight correlation between demographic factors (especially education and age) and vote choice suggests that in demographically changing cities, progressive politics has a structural advantage. As cities grow younger, more educated, more diverse, and more renter-heavy, the coalition Mamdani assembled becomes the natural majority.
However, this analysis also reveals the limits of demographic determinism. Class, age, and values crosscut racial and ethnic lines in complex ways. A simple "demographics are destiny" narrative misses the nuance revealed by granular, Election District-level analysis.
Looking Forward
Mayor-elect Mamdani faces enormous challenges: delivering on ambitious promises with limited resources, managing a city bureaucracy that may resist his reforms, and governing a diverse coalition that includes both pragmatic progressives and ideological purists. His success or failure will shape progressive politics nationally.
For Democrats nationally, the lesson is ambiguous: progressive politics can win, but requires the right candidate, the right message, and the right moment. For Republicans, the lesson is stark: Trump-association is toxic in cities, and no amount of money or name recognition can overcome it.
Most fundamentally, this election reveals a city—and perhaps a country—in the midst of generational political realignment. The old divides of the 20th century (labor vs. capital, ethnic machines vs. reformers, outer boroughs vs. Manhattan) are giving way to new ones (young vs. old, educated vs. non-educated, renters vs. owners, climate activists vs. climate skeptics). Zohran Mamdani's victory may be remembered as the moment when this new political era arrived in full force.
Methodology Note
This analysis is based on Election District-level results matched with U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates (2018-2022). Election Districts were spatially joined to Census Tracts using GIS techniques, achieving a 98% match rate (4,252 of 4,338 EDs). Demographic data includes 95 variables covering income, education, race, ethnicity, nativity, language, and housing. Correlations, averages, and patterns reported are calculated across these 4,252 matched Election Districts. While individual voter characteristics cannot be inferred from area-level data (the ecological inference problem), the patterns revealed by geographic analysis provide robust insights into the demographic basis of vote choice.